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9th April 2007
Hello Reader..
In this weeks' E-Letter I will be discussing:
- why I wouldn't look Richard Whiteley in the eye
- why you shouldn't get personal at the table
- how to count your 'outs' and
- where to find a good website to practice counting your 'outs'.
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Have you had a good week?
Last week I highlighted the famous Sammy Farha -v- Barry Greenstein
classic hand and also pointed you in the right direction for PokerTracker
- essential Online Software - If you missed it, then you can read
it again on my website: www.holdorfold.co.uk
This week, I was going to highlight another famous Sammy Farha hand
which is an absolute classic -
But last night, I couldn't sleep - I found myself in the wee hours
of the morning, mulling over a hand I played last month -
It was a Satellite for the EPT (European Poker Tour) in Warsaw -
I had won a Seat for this Satellite for $12 in a qualifer and the
direct Buy-in was $475 so I was already happy with myself for getting
this far.
Actually, I had won a Qualifier for the EPT in Dortmund but changed
it to Warsaw for the following reasons…
a) I have been to Germany a few times but I have never been to Poland
b) There were fewer players in the Polish Tournament
c) The Polish Tournament was NOT going to be televised…
The third reason was the most important one for me - If the Tournament
was not going to be televised, then if I did qualify, it wouldn't
be as manic as if it had been televised - there wouldn't have been
so many top names there and I wouldn't have had to worry about my
profile -
Not my player profile, but my physical profile - I can't stand it
!
I feel as if I look like a cross between a witch and a hamster -
!
Just push your nose towards your chin and puff your cheeks out
and you'll know what I mean ...
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Why I wouldn't look Richard Whiteley in the eye
*****************************************
Many years ago I appeared on Countdown - it was one of those "I
can do this" moments - Unfortunately I didn't get any old biddies
- the person I beat had already been champion for 5 days and the
person who beat me went on to win another 3 programmes.
He was a welsh man with a very strong welsh accent, and in those
days, if your game was a draw, then you played again the next day
- we drew one programme and then he beat me the next day - bleugh
!
I was watching the recording when it came out a few weeks later
- and I was watching him playing the next day as Champion. I was
throwing a few choice words at the television and questioning whether
his parents were married until Richard Whiteley asked him what his
7-letter word was - and he said, rolling his Rrrrr's in the very
strong welsh accent -
"SCRrrrrOTUM" !!!
I fell over laughing and forgave him on the spot ! You can't be
cross with anyone who says "Scrotum" on national telly !!
Anyways - I digress - the reason I was telling you this is that
- if I qualified for my very first EPT final, then I would have
had enough to worry about while making sure my profile didn't appear
on television - I had spent the whole 3 days on Countdown speaking
directly into the camera and not looking at Richard Whiteley at
all !!
But back to last month's Warsaw Qualifier…
There were 125 players and the Top 7 went through to Warsaw so the
odds were fairly good. I had been out to the cinema with my daughter
and rushed in to find the Tournament had already started and seeing
a Pair of 10's in my hand, I rashly called an all-in bet and found
my opponent turning over a Pair of Kings - luckily I hit my '2-outer'
by catching another 10 on the river much to the absolute disgust
of my opponent who continued to berate me for ages -
(get over it - it happens !!)
So I had doubled up and found myself Chip leader at the end of 2
hours - I was moved to a new table and quickly saw that one particular
player, who had a big chip stack, was bullying the table and picking
up pots and blinds with aggressive bets -
I won a few pots against him by re-raising him a few times and he
folding - the score was 3-1 to me -
Now I know you are not supposed to let anyone get under your skin,
not to take anything personally as it can colour or cloud your judgment
- but this particular player was winding me up something rotten
-
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Featured Hand of the Week
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Eventually 'The Hand' came along - I was in the Big Blind and HE
was in a Middle position - our chip stacks were about even - and
he, predictably, raised 3X (3 times) my Big Blind - everyone else
folded and I called with 76 suited.
The flop came down, 2, 3, 7 - I raised and he re-raised - My gut
instinct told me he was most DEFINITELY bluffing - but my
head told me that he just might have an overpair - I should have
re-raised him all in and I KNOW he would have folded, but
I just called - (don't you just hate that word 'should' !!)
The Turn came down with a Jack, I raised again and he went all-in
- this was a lot of chips as we were both well over average - and
if it had been any other player, I would have folded - but as it
was HIM (Grrrrrrr) - I called - and he showed J9 offsuit giving
him a Pair of Jacks.
The River didn't help me and I was out in 38th position.
With a hand like this, I should (there's that word again!)
have trusted my gut instinct and re-raised him all in at the flop
but I wavered, and just took the middle ground and gave him a chance
to catch his card on the Turn -
It's a bit like driving, sometimes in a situation, you either brake
hard to get out of trouble or you accelerate hard to get out of
trouble - you have to make a definite decision and it's dangerous
to dither -
I explained the hand to my friend Dave who is a brilliant person
to discuss hands with and he asked me what on earth I was doing
risking my whole tournament on a vendetta? OK - if it had been someone
who was short-stacked, it might have been alright to play like this
but to put my whole Tournament on the line with a Pair of 7's -
sheer lunacy !
So my advice for today, illustrated by the above hand, is to
a) Trust your gut instincts
b) Don't get personal with another player c) Don't dither - make
a positive move by either Raising or Folding and d) Don't risk your
whole tournament without holding the Nuts
FOOTNOTE -
The next day, I had a look at the results for the Tournament and
HE went out in 10th position and didn't make it to Warsaw
- That brought a smile to my face but it's not personal !!! (not
half !)
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TIP OF THE WEEK Counting your "Outs"
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It is very important to know how many Outs you have - how many cards
are left in the pack which will give you the winning hand - You
then calculate how much you would have to put into the pot in order
to hit your Outs and whether it is worth taking the risk...
For example...
Say the Blinds are 100/200 and you are sitting in late position
with KH and QH - Everyone folds to you and you raise the pot 3X
putting 600 in there. There is now 900 in the pot and everyone folds
except the Big Blind (BB) who calls making the pot now 1300.
The flop comes down AH, 7H and 2S and the BB puts in 1000 insinuating
that he has an Ace giving him a Pair of Aces and the pot is now
2300.
You have to sit there and think about it - you need another Heart
to give you the Nut Flush which is 9 cards out of the 47 cards that
you can't see. So you have 9 Outs with 2 cards to come- 47 to 9
= approx. 5 to 1 x 2 = 2.5 to1
You are going to have to call 1000 to win 2300 - 2.3 to 1 - so it
is a borderline whether to call or fold -
If he had only raised by 500 making the pot 1800 then that would
be 1800 to 500 or 18 to 5 - or 3.2 to 1 - very good odds to call.
Another rough way to work out the odds is - with 2 cards to come,
multiply your Outs by 4 and with 1 card to come - multiply your
Outs by 2 - it's not totally accurate but close enough to help you
make the right decision.
One website I have found is a great way to practice counting your
odds - http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/countem.htm
Play around on there for a while and see how you do - even the most
seasoned players will not get it right every time - !!
Anyways, as I didn't qualify for the EPT - I'm now off to qualify
for this weeks WSOP (World Series of Poker) Satellite so I'll speak
to you next week.
All the best for now
Meg Arana
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