Friday 29th June 2007

Hello there and welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated to helping YOU become a better player!

In this week's E-Letter -

       *What is a Montana Banana?? and
       *Bluffing your socks off

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So - How have you been this last week and a half??

I went to the Casino on Saturday night and felt like I played really well in the Tournament even though I didn't make it to the final table. I got blasted by Trip 3's TWICE !! GRRrrrrrr !!

The first time I had Trip 3's and the Big Blind managed to catch a Flush on the River after I'd put him all-in. And then about two hands later, I had JJ with a Flop of 10, 8, 3 and so I went all-in only to find the SAME opponent holding a pair of 3's - so sad !!

I managed to make up for it by winning £195 on the Cash game after and some of it came from that SAME guy - so I felt good in the end.

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Have you been watching the EPT on the telly? I just wish we didn't have to wait so long after the event to finally get to see it...

Well, the event in Copenhagen saw some AMAZING hands on the Final Table. I've got about four of them to tell you about and this week is the first of the four.

We are down to the final Four players - The Big Blind is 16,000, the Small Blind is 8,000 with a running Ante of 2,000 so there is 32,000 in the pot before the cards are even dealt.

Richard Toth is sitting as chip-leader with 1,783,000 chips and Bertrand 'Elke' Grospellier is second with 1,135,000.

Theo Jorgensen folds and Bertrand 'Elke' Grospellier looks at his cards to find 7H and 5C.
 

He's well-known on the internet as an aggressive player and he raises 29,000 to make the pot 77,000.

Magnus Peterssen in the Small Blind folds 92 offsuit.

Lee Jones commentating says: "They call that hand the 'Montana Banana'."

James Hartigan says: "92 offsuit? Would you like to explain that??"

Lee Jones: "Absolutely - They call that the Montana Banana because 92 offsuit has the same chance of winning as a banana does of growing in Montana!"

Anyways - The Montana Banana gets folded and action goes over to Richard Toth from Hungary who picks up AH and JH in the Big Blind.
 

He Re-Raises 71,000 making the pot now 177,000.

Lee Jones: "This raise is telling Elke - You are stealing, you tried, it didn't work, now throw those cards away."

Elke doesn't fold - he Re-Raises another 169,000 making the pot now 417,000.

James Hartigan: "Well that's the message he's trying to send but Elke's sending a message back."

Lee Jones: "He's saying - Now I REALLY DO have a hand. He's lying, but you are allowed to lie in poker. He said - I'm on the button but I happen to wake up with Pocket 8's or whatever it really was."

James Hartigan: "We have a huge pot building here and I can't see Richard Toth laying down his Ace-Jack."

Lee Jones: "No, it would be really difficult for him to lay down here unless he really does accept Elke's claim."

Richard Toth sits and ponders...

Lee Jones again: "This is what good poker is all about, it's thinking about what your opponent thinks you have, it is a beautiful series of calculations and it's what makes this a wonderful game."

Richard Toth calls.

James Hartigan: "Elke can't be happy about that call and we're now going to see a Flop."

The Flop comes down: 4S, 3S, JD.
   

Richard Toths percentage to win this hand is 80% against Bertrand Grospellier's 20%.

Richard Toth has Top pair with Top kicker and he checks.

Elke checks too.

The Turn is QS and the percentages change to 90% in Richards' favour.


Lee Jones: "Now there's a Spade Flush possibility on the board and there's an overcard to Richards' Jacks."

Richard checks.

Bertrand bets 250,000 making the pot now stand at 836,000.

Lee Jones: "That is a GREAT bet from Elke - I don't care if it works or not, that is a GREAT bet."

Richard Toth calls making the pot now 1,086,000.

James Hartigan: "Well it hasn't worked because Richard has called. He thinks his Jack is still good and he's not going to give Elke credit for the Queen or for the Spades."

The River is 6C.


Lee Jones gasps: "OH MY GOD !! It's the Bingo card for Elke".

James Hartigan exclaims: "He's made the straight, he started with a nothing hand and now he's made the straight on the River!"

Lee Jones: "It looks like a complete blank to Toth and Elke's been betting all along."

Richard Toth Checks and Bertrand Grospellier goes All-In for his final 598,000 so the pot now stands at an incredible 1,684,000.

James Hartigan: "It's the biggest pot of the tournament, it'll decide who is chip- leader."

Lee Jones: "This is going to be impossible for Toth because if he tries to work backwards what Elke's hand is, nothing makes sense. If he's going to give him credit for a real hand, he has to give him credit for the Spade Flush."

Richard Toth ponders and prays.

Lee Jones: "Elke knows Richard Toth can't have spades as he's taking so much time to think and there is a man who's sitting with the calm confidence of a christian holding four aces!".

Richard Toth ponders some more, biting his lips and looking very nervous - eventually he calls and the final pot is 2,282,000.

James Hartigan: "Well he's made the call, the cards go on their backs and he sees the bad news. He was leading ALL the way until the River when Elke made that straight. Sickening defeat for Richard Toth and Elke is the new chip-leader."

Lee Jones sums it up: "Elke is probably a little bit embarrassed and a whole lot delighted."

James Hartigan: "Bluffing all the way, and THEN making the hand on the River when you get called down - Richard Toth is feeling sick - I bet he's thinking 'IF I'd bet the Flop, I would've won the hand."

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Post MORTEM

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James Hartigan was right - Richard Toth had Top Pair Top Kicker on the Flop and he just checked. This gave Elke the bit between his teeth to bet really hard to try and bluff him out of the hand.

In my opinion, when Elke checked the Flop and the Turn came down, Richard checked the Turn and Elke put in a big bet - At that point, I would have re-raised All-In and I'm sure that Elke would have had to have laid the hand down. Even if Elke did have the Queen, it would have been a hard bet for him to call.

I'll bring you the very next hand that followed this one next week and it's another BLINDER !!

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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and I'll see you again next Friday.

All the best

Meg Arana
Hold or Fold