Friday 6th July 2007

Hello there and welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated to helping YOU become a better player!

In this week's E-Letter -

       *What happened in the very next hand...

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I hope you have had a good week - I placed 137th in the Sunday 300K which was okay and although I think I played very well - I just couldn't get any further... I'm convinced that on the right day, in the right tournament, with the right beats - I'll make that final table... you just watch this space !

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Last week - I outlined an amazing hand taken from the Copenhagen EPT Final Table - and THIS week - I want to tell you all about the VERY NEXT hand that occurred... unbelievable !!

If you remember last week, (and if you don't - then you'll find a copy of ALL the e-letters I write on my website: www.holdorfold.co.uk), with four players remaining - Bertrand 'Elke' Grospellier put an almighty badbeat onto Richard Toth and Richard is still reeling from going from Chip-Leader to virtually crippled.

There are still four players left - the blinds are 8,000 in the Small Blind, 16,000 in the Big Blind with a running ante of 2,000 so there is 32,000 in the pot before the cards are dealt.

Bertrand 'Elke' Grospellier is first to act and raises 30,000 with JC & 9C.
 

The pot is at 78,000.

James Hartigan commentating says: "Here come Elke raising it up again."

Lee Jones continues: "At this point, Elke is just going to be raising it up with any two cards he finds - he's putting the pedal to the mettle - he just doesn't care !"

Magnus Peterssen folds and action moves to Richard Toth who finds QH & 9H.
 

He decides to call, making the pot 116,000.

Then it's Theo Jorgensen's turn to act - and he finds AC & AD !
 

James Hartigan: "Theo Jorgensen has ACES AGAIN !!"

Lee Jones says sarcastically: "This site is SO rigged !!" (This made me chuckle !)

Theo is fairly short-stacked so he goes all-in for his final 251,000 making the pot 367,000.

Elke folds his hand and action moves back to Richard Toth.

Lee Jones: "Remember, Toth is still smarting from that last hand - I don't think his mental facilities are at their peak right now."

James Hartigan asks: "How does Q9 suited rate as a hand 4-handed?"

Lee Jones replies: "It's a perfectly fine raise/calling hand - but now Theo, behind a raise and a call has moved all-in" (meaning it's fine to be aggressive with this hand, but not passive)

Richard Toth asks for a count of Theo's chips and ponders.

James Hartigan: "He's asked for a count so he's giving this some serious consideration."

Lee Jones: "I don't think he thinks he's in front but he very correctly is thinking it's not a question of WHETHER I'm in front, it's a question of WHETHER I'm getting the right price to call here. Of course he's not but, if Theo has something like A3 then he is getting the right price. And we need to emphasize that he is still recovering from a most spectacular hand-gone-wrong of the whole tournament."

Richard Toth looks at Theo for inspiration but Theo is as impassive as you can get, staring at
the table and looking miserable.

Lee Jones: "Theo is a complete cypher, he's not showing a single thing."

The odds pre-flop are: Theo 80% to Richard's 20%.

Lee Jones: "He wants to get a bunch of chips back right now."

Richard Toth continues to ponder and think and bite his lips.

Richard Toth says: "Theo, I think I have to trust in my instincts, and... it says... I think you have nothing."

And he shoves his chips in and calls Theo's bet to make the pot 588,000.

James Hartigan: "He's making the call and he's going to see that his instincts were wrong."

Theo whips his Aces onto the table and Richard cries out in agony when he sees the bullets !!

Lee Jones: "His instincts were very wrong, he's a 4:1 underdog against Theo."

Theo laughs, stands up confidently and takes a swig of water.

He says: "Yes wrong instincts, sometimes it happens to me too."

The Flop comes down: 10C, 4H, 7D.
   

The odds change to 90% in Theo's favour to Richard's measly 10%.

James Hartigan: "Theo is in a great position to double up here."

The Turn comes down as the JH !!


What a card !!

Lee Jones: "That is the BEST card that Toth could have hoped for - NOW suddenly, it's only a 2:1 race - He has a straight draw and a Flush Draw."

The odds now stand at: 66% to Theo and 34% to Richard.

Theo's whole demeanour changes from laughing and joking to his supporters in the crowd to some serious consternation as he stands there, holding onto a chair for dear life - this is his tournament on the line - he's all-in...

Here comes the River... 10H !!!


James Hartigan: "And there's the Ten of Hearts and that means that, on the River, Theo Jorgensen has been defeated as Toth makes a Flush !"

Theo scrapes his lucky hat off his head and Richard Toth gets up a little bit embarrassed and a whole lot delighted to shake his hand.

Lee Jones: "This is absolutely amazing - what an awful AWFUL River Card !"

James Hartigan: "Richard Toth can feel a little bit better about himself now - it makes up for that last hand against Elke."

Lee Jones: "That's right - Elke put a horrible beat on him and now he's put a horrible beat on Theo - That's the way Poker goes sometimes - the beats just get passed around."

They are now down to 3 players and I have two more amazing hands to tell you about from the same final table ... how exciting is that??

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Post MORTEM

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People often say - "That's Poker" - You have to calculate the odds and get your chips in with the best hand - but no-one can predict the 'luck' factor that happens with alarming frequency -
The trick I've learnt is to make sure you can get enough chips behind you to be able to ride at least one bad beat and preferably two or three - because they WILL happen - for you and against you - That's what makes Poker such a great game !!

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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and I'll see you again next Friday.

All the best

Meg Arana
Hold or Fold