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14th September 2007
Welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated
to
helping YOU become a better player!
In this week's E-Letter -
*Don't get married to Two Queens
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Hiya there and how have you been this week?
I am continuing to experiment with the strategy I outlined in last
week's e-letter - essentially it means playing 200 Sit and Go One-Table
Tournaments to get my bankroll up -
Well - I managed to get up to $350 at one point and then had a disastrous
run and was down to a $38 loss - but I've persevered and I have
confidence in my abilities - and currently after 50 tournaments
- I'm up to $133 profit and I hope it continues to go upwards -
I'll keep you informed.
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Don't get married to Two Queens !
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This week's hand is taken from the WPT event held at Foxwoods Resort
and Casino on Sunday April 9th 2006. The first place finisher would
receive $1,331,889 !
We are on the final table and there are 4 players left.
Victor Ramdin has 2,840,000 chips
Ed Jordan has 2,590,000
Alex Jacob - 1,665,000 and
Larry Klur 1,535,000 so it's fairly even....
The blinds are 25,000/50,000 with a running ante of 5,000 so there
is 95,000 in the pot before the cards are dealt.
Victor is first to act and quickly folds 3S and 2C.
Over to Larry Klur on the button and he picks up KH and 4C.
He thinks about it and then folds - quite tight play 4-handed on
the button...
Having said that - he can afford to wait for a better situation.
Over to Alex Jacob, a young studious guy who gives absolutely nothing
away with his expressions... he picks up QH and QC.
Mike Sexton commentating: "Good job Larry laid his hand
down !"
Alex just limps in with his Queens which is very dangerous and risky!
Ed Jordan picks up 7H & 6H and checks.
There is 120,000 in the pot and Alex is 76% favourite to win this.
If you're going to be up against a big pair - medium suited-connectors
is the absolute best hand you could have - so hang on to your seats...
Mike Sexton continues: "Well Ed has the type of hand you
want to see a flop with and he's taking one here."
The Flop comes down... 10S 6C and AS.
Mike Sexton: "Ed has flopped bottom pair - Alex of course
still has the best hand with the two Queens."
Alex is first to act and he checks..
Now he doesn't know where he is with that Ace on the table... if
only he'd raised pre-flop... Personally I hate slow-playing Aces
let alone Queens... and I would put a bet in here to test the water.
Action to Ed - he bets out 150,000.
Vince Van Patten commentating: "Alex thinks to himself..
'Wait a second... wouldn't Ed have raised before the flop if he
had an ace??'"
Alex looks at his chips, he has an air of Phil Ivey about him -
mouth slightly open, eyes darting around - he glances at Ed to try
and get a read or tell on him...
Mike Sexton: "Well that's the look he's given him right
there Vince, you just saw it. 'You really have an ace?? I don't
think so' That's why I would prefer to raise it right here if I
had two queens and if I was going to play them - just to test the
water and see where I was at." (that's what I recommended !)
Ed is sitting tight with his chin on his right hand - looking nonchalant
- it's easier to have a confident air about you if you hit something...
i.e. as Ed has caught a pair - he can say to himself - I have a
pair - it may not be top pair - but it's a pair so I can look and
feel confident and give the impression that I have the Ace - it's
alot easier to do that as opposed to if you miss the flop completely
and you're pulling a huge bluff -
Alex calls the raise and there is now 420,000 in the pot.
The odds are still 78% in Alex's favour to win the pot.
The Turn is 9C.
Mike Sexton: "And a nine comes off...and this gives Ed
a Gutshot Straight Draw to go along with his two sixes but action
is on Alex."
Alex checks again... what a bad play this is - at best he's giving
his opponent a free card - at worst he is going to have to deal
with his opponent raising him...
Ed checks too - he thinks - 'yes please - I'll take a free card
and look as though I'm trapping at the same time.'
The River is 8H giving Ed the straight !
Vince Van Patten: "Alex played this hand a little too
sneaky it appears and now action is on him."
Alex bets out 200,000
Mike Sexton: "He didn't raise before the flop, he limped
in, he didn't bet on the flop he didn't raise on the flop, he didn't
bet on the Turn and here he is now betting on the River with the
two queens".
Vince: "Well that's a thing of beauty if you're EBJ" (Ed
B Jordan)
Mike: "Well I don't mind this bet that much - it's a feeler-type
bet."
Vince: "he's going to feel it in the wrong place because
EBJ hit the straight here."
Ed Jordan announces: "Raise"
The look on Alex's face is classic - what? Huh? eh? Oh bum!
Mike: "Here he comes with the raise - he's not buying
the fact that his opponent might have a bigger straight"
Ed fiddles with his chips and announces: "700,000!"
Mike: "Well he's bet 700,000 more !"
Vince: "What a predicament here for the young player,
Alex Jacob, who played his opponent correctly by realising that
he didn't have an ace - but letting him stick around on fourth street...
and now this guy has hit a straight on him - now do you pay him
off? I think he has to lay this down."
Mike: "Oh Vince - I don't know how you can call this bet...He
has the two blockers** so he doesn't
think his opponent has a Queen-High straight... But there are so
many hands that can beat a pair of queens - two pair - three of
a kind - 10-high straight - Jack-High straight - even a lone Ace..."
**Blocker = Cards that reduce the
odds of an opponent making their hand.
Vince: "You got to get into the mind of Ed - would he
have really put up 900,000 with a guy that just bet 200,000 into
him if he didn't have the Seven?? Invest that kind of money - very
scarey re-raise if he didn't have it."
Mike: "On the other hand - Alex could make a worse mistake
by coming over the top perhaps, he's got two blockers for the Nut-Straight,
the Queen-High Straight.."
Alex continues to look down, look at Ed, look down, look at his
cards, stalling for time...
Vince: "Ed is just dying for a call right now"
Mike: "Yep the longer Alex takes to make the call, the
more sure he is that his 10-High straight is good and you're right
Vince - he's saying 'come on kid - get your money in there'"
Vince: "Well Alex is in a quagmire right here - he's saying
'gee I thought I was playing so nice - what the heck happened??'"
Mike: "He limped in trying to trap his opponent and what
he's done is trap himself."
More time passes as Alex fiddles and stares up and down and fiddles
some more...
Ed still has his chin on his hand looking nonchalant but now really
confident that he has the best hand and trying to give the air that
he's bluffing ! The opposite to before.
Vince: "Is Alex going to do something foolish here and
pay this off?"
Mike: "And this is what happens folks when you slow-play
two queens before the flop. You get in these situations where you're
guessing at the end and you might not know what to do."
Alex prevaricates some more and then says: "I call"
Vince and Mike in Unison: "OH NOOOOO !!! OH HE'S MADE
THE CALL !! OUCH !!"
Mike: "He's failed this test no doubt about it - he just
would not let those lovely ladies go - getting married to the two
queens there and becuase of it - he's getting divorced from some
of his chips!"
Ed shows Alex the bad news by turning his cards over to show the
straight -
Alex sucks his cheek in and accepts his fate.
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Post Mortem
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Slow-playing is a marvellous way to trap your opponent and deceive
him into parting with alot of his chips - but it is also very high-risk
and you can end up losing alot of your own chips !
Personally, I very VERY rarely slow-play - I tried it the
other day when I was on the Big Blind with a Pair of Aces. Someone
in early position had limped in and everyone else folded around
to me -
I thought to myself, there is only me and this guy in the pot -
I'll check my aces and see what happens. It turned out that I lost
to a flush and the guy was holding Q3 suited !!
GRRRRRRRRRRR !!!
If I had raised pre-flop - then he would have folded his hand -
yes ok - I wouldn't have won many chips but I also wouldn't have
lost a load which I ended up doing.
So - it's a high-risk strategy and you need nerves of steel and
some luck to get rewarded.
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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and
I'll see you again next Friday.
All the best
Meg Arana
Hold or Fold
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