Friday 7th December 2007

Welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated to
helping YOU become a better player!

In this week's E-Letter -

       *Colin Murray tries out for a Cillit Bang Ad

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Hiya there and how have you been this week?

My week's been fairly good - I decided to withdraw from last Sunday's Tournament as I had a huge row with my daughter half an hour before the start and I was simply not in the right frame of mind to play poker -

It's really important to be able to focus on the game and if you're not feeling good or confident - then simply don't play! So I took that decision and it was probably the right one !

I went on to have a good win on Wednesday when I came 2nd in a $60 tournament winning nearly $550 so I'm up on this week and I'm RARING to go for this Sunday's tournament - as long as I don't have another row with anyone !!

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Colin Murray tries out for a Cillit Bang Ad

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This week's featured hand comes from the European Poker Tour last year held in Dublin.

It is the final table after 3 days of play and we are down to five players.

The blinds are 7,500/15,000 with a running ante of 1,500.

The first player folds and action moves to englishman Dave Pomroy who picks up AH & 9D.
 

He raises it up to 45,000 so there is now 90,000 in the pot.

Joe Rafferty from Belfast is next to act and he picks up 6H & 6S.
 

He calls the bet to make the pot now stand at 150,000.

The other players fold and we go to the Flop.

The odds are fairly even - slightly in Joe's favour with 56%.

The Flop comes down... 8S, 6C and QS.
   

The odds are now a massive 95% in Joe's favour with his trip-6's.

Dave Pomroy is first to act.

Colin Murray commentating: "Let's see how he plays this, Pomroy could see a serious dent in his chip stack if he throws too many chips in at the moment."

John Duthie also commentating sighs: "He is in really really bad shape here."

Colin Murray continues: "There's no way back really unless he hits two nines or two aces on the Turn and the River"

**erm - not right Colin !**

John Duthie: "It looks like he's thinking of betting a large amount here."

Colin Murray corrects himself: "In fact I am struggling to see where he has any chance because if he hits running trips - then Rafferty would have a Full House - that's not going to do him any good either - !"

Dave thinks about it for a while and bets out 100,000.

Joe doesn't take long to respond and shoves ALL his chips in the middle - so the pot is now 470,500 and Dave would have to put all his remaining chips in to call the bet.

John Duthie: "Well Joe's moved all-in here and quite rightly."

Colin Murray: "That should be the end of the hand - Pomroy simply can't call with that."

John Duthie: "No he can't call - I'm just trying to see how much he has left - he's got about 100,000 left..."

Colin Murray: "It doesn't matter if he has 50,000 left - he knows he can't compete in this hand - it doesn't matter what the pot-value is to put it in."

John Duthie: "I agree"

Colin Murray: "He's on nothing - he's got NOTHING!"

John Duthie: "He can't call here."

You can see Dave Pomroy thinking - oh s**t - what have I got myself into here - and you can see the wheels turning in his head - he gives a little smile to himself, he counts his chips up and eventually he stacks his chips together and puts them in the middle saying: "Everyone close their eyes - I can't pass !!"

Norman Pace who is calling the cards in the room says: "David says he can't pass, he calls."

Colin Murray shouts: "OOOOwwwww !!! Dave Pomroy has called this - we're going to lose him - he knows we're going to lose him."

Dave stands up as he turns his cards over and then sees Joe's cards - he sits back down slouching in his chair as he realises what he's up against and smiles and removes his shades.

The Turn comes down: 7C


This opens up an open-ended straight draw for Dave and his odds increase slightly to 18%.

Joe shows no emotion and silently chews his gum watching the play unfold.

Colin Murray: "Oh no - hello - it's not going to happen - "

Dave smiles wryly at his last-gasp chance...

The Flop comes down: 10D !!!!!!!!


Joe reels back in total agony, flings his hands in the air and looks around for someone to punch !

Colin Murray guns for an opportunity to appear on a Cillit Bang commercial:
"HE HITS THE TEN FOR THE STRAIGHT AND RAFFERTY CAN'T BELIEVE HIS LUCK !!! HE'S ONLY COME DOWN THE ROAD FROM BELFAST BUT HE FEELS LIKE HE'S BEEN SOLD UP THE RIVER !!!!!"

Dave Pomroy looks embarrassed as hell but also really pleased and trying not to just WHOOP IT UP ! He gives a HUGE sigh of relief and counts his lucky stars.

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Post Mortem

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Dave didn't think for a minute that he would win the hand - he just thought that with 73,500 chips left - he might get lucky and hit an Ace - but he hadn't reckoned on Joe holding Trips.

With only 73,500 chips - he would only have had enough to go just over twice round the table with the blinds and antes so high - i.e. he would have had to find another hand in the next 10 or 11 hands - and even then - people would call his all-in raise with marginal hands - so he flung his chips in and resigned himself to 5th place - the fact that he hit a miracle runner-runner was a complete shock and surprise and would only happen 5% of the time !!

Dave went on to finish in 3rd position while Joe never really recovered from that hand and finished in 4th.

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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and I'll see you again next Friday.

All the best

Meg Arana
Hold or Fold