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Friday 14th December 2007
Welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated
to
helping YOU become a better player!
In this week's E-Letter -
*A little lesson on Implied
Odds
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Hiya there and how have you been this week?
As for me - it's been a fairly good week - I haven't managed to
play much poker what with Christmas approaching and presents to
be wrapped and cards to be written - I crashed out of the Sunday
Tournament close to the money but I lost my focus a little and -
again - didn't see someone smugly sitting there with Trips against
my pair of Kings -
It's a lesson I just HAVE to learn and hopefully my misdemeanours
will be helping your game - Even if you have the overpair to the
board and you raise it up - if someone calls or re-raises - it should
start alarm bells ringing and VERY loudly !! Note the raise and
decide if this is the time that they might have hit Trips....
I have won some smaller tournaments so I'm not down on the week
but it could have been oh so much better !!
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A little lesson on Implied Odds
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This week's featured hand is taken from the EPT in Copenhagen a
couple of years ago - Joseph Hachem was the reigning WSOP champion
and he had alot to prove that he wasn't a one-win-wonder unlike
Chris Moneymaker who hadn't won a thing since his win in 2003.
This is fairly early on in the tournament on Day 1 and the blinds
are only 75/150.
Frodo Fagerli is first to act and he picks up 7D & 7H.
He raises it up by putting 375 chips in the pot to make it stand
at 600.
Colin Murray commentating is his usual talktative self: "This
is our featured TV table - no different than anyone else playing
here on the casino floor in Copenhagen - we just want to feature
them."
The next player folds and then a player called Sampson picks up
10C & 10D -
so he calls the bet and the pot moves up to 975.
Colin Murray: "Well Sampson so far playing more like Delilah
- he hasn't had many cards whatsoever so lets see if he can get
some nice action now"
The next player folds.
A player called Jensen picks up 8H & 6H and he calls the bet so
the pot is now 1,350.
Action moves to Joe Hachem who picks up 7C & 5H and he decides to
call the bet too.
Colin Murray: "Why is he calling that with 75 offsuit??"
John Duthie also commentating replies: "Because of the
implied odds, if he hits the perfect Flop, are very big - you can
win a very big pot... the trouble is he doesn't know that actually
he's up against a pair of Sevens - if he hits 75 - he's in deep
trouble !!"
The Button, Small and Big Blind all fold.
The pot is now standing at 1,745 and the odds of winning, pre-flop,
are:
Hachem 9%
Jensen 12%
Sampson 71%
Fagerli 8%
The Flop comes down: 5D, 9D & 7S !!
John Duthie: "Oh my God, oh dear"
Colin Murray: "Trip 7's for Fagerli - very strong hand
indeed - Sampson's Pocket 10's not looking good at this stage -
but let's just take a closer look at this because Jensen has picked
up the Straight !"
John Duthie: "It's a HUGE possible hand this - absolutely
massive"
Colin Murray: "Alot of outs for Fagerli but at this stage
he's got desperately unlucky - he's hit his trips - but as we just
said - Hachem's got 2-pair - he's going to fancy it - Sampson's
got the overpair - he's going to fancy it and Jensen's hit the straight
!"
The odds of winning this hand are now:
Hachem 0%
Jensen 64%
Sampson 9%
Fagerli 27%
Fagerli bets out 500 chips.
Sampson calls 500 chips.
Jensen checks his cards and has a moment to think. At this moment
he's holding the nuts but there are possible hand that could beat
him should the two remaining cards go the wrong way for him - so
he raises is up by 1,300 more and the pot is now 4,025.
John Duthie: "Jensen has raised rightly - just
in case there's a Flush Draw out there - or Trips indeed - he doesn't
want somebody to pair the board and get confused."
Joe is next to act. He thinks about this alot. He smells a rat by
the looks of it - he puts his head on his forehead and then covers
his mouth and plays with his chips.
John Duthie: "Joe's in a real situation here -
ok - so the pre-flop raiser has bet out under the gun and now has
been re-raised by Jensen - so maybe he thinks - maybe my two-pair
aren't any good - maybe this guy's got Trip-9's or Trip 5's - Trip
7's - maybe I'm in trouble here - if he can throw this hand away
- it wil be a very very good laydown."
Joe thinks about it some more and then reaches for his chips.
John Duthie: "OK - now he's raising to see where he stands
- lets see how much he raises"
He re-raises by another 2,700.
Colin Murray: "Well he IS going to find out - Joe's going
to find out that everyone has something - I think Sampson is the
one player who may just say Thank you and Goodnight at this stage
of the hand - even with the overpair - he must sense that there
is better out there."
John Duthie: "I think he MUST know that he's losing."
Action back to Fagerli - he thinks about it for a while and then
calls the raise.
Sampson folds and action moves back to Jensen.
John Duthie: "So Sampson has gone - good fold. OK Now
- here we go - he (Jensen) has to got to move in now to get any
Flush Draws out - if he just flat calls here - it is very dangerous
- if a Diamond comes or the board pairs - he won't know what to
do - he's got to make it too expensive for them to call."
And sure enough - after some deliberation, Jensen announces:
"All in !"
That's another 12,075 for Joe or Fagerli to call.
Joe puts his hands into a steeple position and places them over
his nose while he thinks and thinks about the hand. He replays it
in his mind and has to decide what to do.
Colin Murray: "Joe Hachem won exactly... look at his cards...
7 & 5 - 7.5 million in the World Series of Poker - he's a very good
player - he must know that his two pair are not standing up at this
precise moment - no decision surely - Fagerli on the other hand,
he's got a decision - Hachem is drawing dead ! We know this because
one of the other players has thrown away one of the 5's and the
only way Hachem can win this is to hit a 5 on the Turn and a 5 on
the River - There ain't two 5's in the pack and even if Hachem doesn't
know this - he must sense he's in serious trouble."
Joe finally reaches a decision and he says: "I fold under
protest! - I want that noted !!"
Colin Murray: "He folds under protest - well - he should
be very happy !"
Fagerli thinks about it for about 10 seconds and then decides to
call the all-in bet.
Joseph looks across and says: "Please tell me I made a
good fold !"
Jensen throws his cards face up on the table and Joe punches
the air shouting "Yes Yes !!"
Fagerli doesn't look quite so happy - There is now 34,475 in the
pot and the odds are 65% in Jensen's favour.
Colin Murray: "Frodo Fagerli needs to pair the board or
hit another 7 to get out of Jail"
The Turn is: 2S
Colin Murray: "OOohh this is exciting, a 2, a 7, a 9 or
a 5 and Fagerli takes it - he has lots of outs... "
The River is QS
Colin Murray: "...And that's not one of them so it's the
straight that does it for Jensen - Denmark beats Norway - Flops
the straight - what an intriguing hand - Four really big hands after
the Flop"
John Duthie: "You see what I mean by what I was saying
about implied odds - the 6-8 looks like a really strange hand pre-flop
- but if you hit your perfect flop - you can often get paid with
it!"
Colin Murray has to get the final word: "And that's
exactly what happened - really good hand - really good hand !!!"
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Post Mortem
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Talk about laying down a good hand - you hit two-pairs on the Flop
and someone else has Trips and yet another player has hit a straight.
Unlike myself in the Sunday Tournament - Joe Hachem heard the alarm
bells ringing loud and clear so he was able to put down his hand
- even if it was "Under Protest" as he said.
I've said it sooooooo many times before - one of the traits of a
great poker player is to be able to lay down a good hand - it's
a lesson I most definitely have to learn and it's one that Joe Hachem
HAS learnt - so YOU must learn from my mistakes and Joe's excellence
and add this gun to your armour !!
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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and
I'll see you again next Friday.
All the best
Meg Arana
Hold or Fold
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