Friday 18th January 2008

Welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated to
helping YOU become a better player!

In this week's E-Letter -

       *You have to learn to be a Statue ! and
       *Are you Suupersticious??

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Hiya there and how have you been this week??

Grrr - I was doing very well in last Sunday's tournament but I went out to someone holding a Pair of Bullets against my Big Slick - so I got them straight in the heart and was dumped out in 611th position - very disappointing !

But I've qualified easily for this Sunday's tournament and I am DETERMINED to do better this week !

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You have to learn to be a Statue !

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Have you been watching the PartyPoker Women's World Open?? I've been enthralled by it - not just because I'm a lady - but because it's very interesting to see Women play against each other.

Normally - the ratio of men:women in a tournament is over 10:1 and women are usually the lone female on a table - but in this tournament - it's women -v- women and I think they have to work harder to get information from each other - I just think it's fascinating to watch.

This week's hand was featured in Wednesday nights' broadcast of the PartyPoker Women's World open.

The format is the usual - six players vying for one place to go through to the next round.

At this moment in time - there are now 4 ladies left including the (in my humble opinion) much over-rated Jennifer (how much cleavage can I show?) Tilly although she doesn't feature in this hand.

The Blinds are 2,000/4,000.

Jennifer Mason is first to act and she passes.

Jennifer Tilly is next to act and she also passes.

Next is Kate O'Neill who is the Chip Leader and sitting in the Small Blind.

She picks up QD & JD and raises it up to 9,000 in total.
 

Action moves to Soraya Homam sitting in the Big Blind and she picks up QH & 10H.
 

After thinking about it for a moment, she decides to call the raise.

Shannon Elizabeth commentating sighs as she sees Soraya's cards: "ooh - could be very dangerous !"

Jesse May also commentating: "They've kinda got the same hand haven't they although Kate's is a bit better."

So there is 18,000 in the pot as we go to the Flop and the odds are 67% in Kate's favour with an 8% chance of a Split Pot.

The Flop comes down: JS 8H 5H !!!
   

Jesse May: "I wonder who the favourite is - Homam has the Straight Draw and the Flush Draw - Kate has Top Pair - it's Close !"

Shannon replies: "Yes very close - I'd rather have Homam's hand right now honestly."

The actual odds are now 53% in Kate's favour so very nearly 50-50.

Kate is first to act and she reaches for chips and bets out 12,000.

Soraya makes a quick glance at Kate and calls fairly quickly.

There is now 42,000 in the pot.

Jesse May: "I was just gonna say - it's interesting to see how Homam likes to play her big draws - she's just called - I wonder if she's planning on raising the Turn if she misses."

The Turn comes down: JH


Jesse May: "OH MYYY !!!"

Kate checks.

Shannon laughs: "Didn't miss but er - it helped Kate's hand a little."

The odds swing to Soraya's favour - giving her an 80% chance of winning this hand now - i.e. she will win this hand 4 out of every 5 times.... But this is poker huh !?!!

Jesse May whispers: "Kate's just checked - she's probably checked to raise hasn't she?"

Shannon replies: "Yeah - this could be bad!"

Jesse May continues: "There's no way she can put Homam on the Flush is there??"

Soraya gives another quick glance at Kate and bets out 12,000.

Shannon continues: "Well Homam has to worry about a bigger Flush out there as well - she doesn't have the nuts and she'll probably be very aware of that."

Jesse May whispers in awe: "How big can this pot get??"

Shannon laughs: "I think pretty big !"

Kate thinks about it for a while - she announces "Raise" and then puts the original 12,000 in plus another 24,000.

Jesse May: "And now the board is paired - I mean its - Homam's going to have to think about this isn't she."

Shannon: "Yeah - she's gotta to be worried about a bigger Flush - now if she doesn't put Kate on that bigger Flush - she could push to make sure that Kate doesn't fill up if she's worried Kate has that Jack."

Soraya calls the raise and there is now 114,000 in the pot.

Jesse May: "She's just called and this is a HUGE pot and the River - it needs to pair the board or be a Queen for Kate O'Neill otherwise the Flush is good."

The River comes down: 5C !!!


Shannon wows: "WOWWWWWWWWWWWW - back and forth!!"

Kate shifts in her chair, leans back and looks at Soraya's chips - a few times earlier in this heat Kate has had a big tendency to show exactly how she is feeling - her hands have shook when she's had a big hand and she hasn't exactly been poker-faced.

Soraya studies her intently.

Jesse May: "And er - Kate'll know she has the nuts - Homam has to be worried because obviously unless Kate was on a Flush as well and it might have been bigger - she knows she's hit the Full House."

Shannon: "Yeah - that was a scare-card."

Kate starts to make funny raspberry-type noises with her lips and then looks very hard at her own chips. She then raises both palms upwards as if to say - 'what can I do?' and then knocks the table a few times and then announces: "All in."

Soraya looks at her and smiles.

Shannon: "I think she's going to get away from it now - "

Jesse: "A big bet so big Shannon - doesn't it almost look weak??"

Soraya asks how much it is - although personally I feel she has no intention of calling this bet - she's just a very methodical player and considers all her options before making any moves.

Shannon: "Well she's asked for a chip-count - it could look like a push like - 'you have nothing' - but I don't think she'd put her whole tournament at risk with nothing. Especially since Homam called on the Turn - which means she has something !"

Soraya looks at Kate and smiles - then asks in her clipped German accent: "You have something??"

Kate replies: "Just two cards" and smiles back.

And the two eyeball each other quite closely - but Kate looks confident and Soraya is sweating a bit. Kate now crosses her arms and has a small smile on her face - to me - it looks like she's holding up a huge placard with "I HAVE A FULL HOUSE" written on it !

Shannon: "Kate looks really comfortable right now - if you're reading body language, she's smiling, she's moving around - she's like - 'go ahead and call me' - she's looking very comfortable which tells me she's got it - I mean - I think she'd be better off being a statue."

The Tournament Director - Mad Marty Wilson puts the timer on Soraya.

Jesse May: "Thirty Seconds and she must call or her hand is dead."

Shannon: "Thirty seconds? You don't even get a minute here??"

Soraya stands up and looks at the board again - she sighs - and clucks -

Marty Wilson counts out: "5... 4... 3... "

and Soraya folds.

Jesse May: "It is a fold and it's the right fold - it wasn't easy - it is NOT easy to fold a Flush and at some point in the future she will realise that she made the right decision - she will perhaps regret not re-raising on the Turn but I think the result might have been even worse."

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Post Mortem

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One of the great advantages of playing Online as opposed to Live Poker is that you can shout and scream at the screen - you can stick two fingers up at your opponents when you hit your bad-beat - you can swear like a trooper when someone hits their two-outer against you etc etc...

But playing Live is a different matter completely - your opponents can see you - can hear you - can sense your body temperature - can see if your hands are shaking - can see the pulse going in your neck - you HAVE to learn to control all your body motions and functions - both consciously and sub-consciously -

You have to learn how to make sure that if you give off any signals - they are the signals you WANT to give off - to try and mislead your opponents - sometimes it looks funny watching players acting on the television - sighing when they get AA pre-flop - but trust me - it works alot of the time - so practice at your computer - try and pretend you're playing live and keep still and statue- like -

If you are really dedicated to playing Live - then put a mirror up next to your screen and watch your own actions as you see your cards or make a bet... It will stand you in good stead when it comes to playing opposite a Real Player !

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Are you Suupersticious??

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A little coda for you: In the same tournament as our featured hand but a little later on...

Soraya Hamom and Jennifer Mason were down to Heads Up - the Action had been swinging back and forth - Jennifer had survived at least 3 or four all-ins against the odds and then this happened...

Soraya was in the Small Blind and was first to act - she picked up AC & JS -
 

Shannon Elizabeth still commentating: "There's a good all-in hand !"

Soraya shakes her head and folds announcing: "I never play zis hand !!"

Jesse SHOUTS: "NOOOO !!! NOOOOO WAYYYYYYYYYYY !!"

Shannon SHOUTS TOO: "OH MY LORDDDDDDDD !! She has some problem with that hand !!"

Jesse can't believe it: "I tell you what - it must have done something to her family!!"

Shannon: "WOWWWWW !!"

Jesse: "YOU JUST can't do that - YOU CANNOT do that !!"

I have watched hours and hours of Poker on the television and apart from seeing Doyle Brunson fold AQ for effect - I have never seen someone fold such a strong hand heads-up - it made me gasp and I wanted to share that moment with you !!

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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and I'll see you again next Friday.

All the best

Meg Arana
Hold or Fold