Friday 22nd February 2008

Welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated to
helping YOU become a better player!

In this week's E-Letter -

       *Three Minutes and 20 seconds seem like a lifetime !!

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Hiya there and how have you been this week??

Wa hay hay !! Guess what happened to me the other night??

I was playing a $11 NLHE multi-table tournament with nearly 3,000 players and I had been playing fairly tight as we were coming up to the bubble. As the bubble burst and we all knew we were in the money, albeit not huge amounts, obviously everyone loosened up a bit at that point including me.

I was sitting on the button with AS JS, everyone folded around to someone sitting in Middle Position and he raised it up about 3X the Big Blind. At this point, I decided just to call, I had been folding these types of hands for the past hour and I didn't feel strong enough to re-raise - so I thought I'd call and see what the Flop brought....

Sure enough - the dream flop came down: KS QS 10S !!!!

WA HAY HAYYYYYYYYYY !!

My poor unfortunately opponent was holding KQ and he went all-in - I paused just long enough to type in 'Sorry Mate' as I called the bet - what a lovely moment !!
My second ever Royal Flush !!!

Everyone was giving me NHs and Well Done's as the opponent was ousted from the table and a new player instantly brought in - he was wondering what all the fuss was about as I happily informed him about my Royal Flush !!

I eventually went on to 24th place - and out of 3,000 - I was well chuffed - these are the types of results I've been getting and I'm hoping they'll translate into the Sunday Tournaments even though I know that the standard of play will be better in a $215 buy-in rather than a $11 buy-in - but I'm regularly getting in Top 50 now so I'm ready to give the Sunday Tourneys another go !!

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Three Minutes and 20 seconds seem like a lifetime !!

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Most of the hands I have featured this year have come from the telly and there hasn't been a chance for you to actually see the hand in action - so I thought for this week, I would search the archives for a spectactular hand for you to read about and then watch for yourself...

Here goes... I think this one fits the bill !

It is taken from the Full Tilt Million Dollar Cash Game last year - the table is full of
'stars' including Howard Lederer and Chris 'Jesus' Ferguson - but this particular hand features Phil Ivey and Patrik Antonius.

Everyone has folded around to Phil Ivey who is sitting on the Cut-Off position.
He picks up JS & JD.
 

He raises it up by $2,000.

Patrik Antonius is sitting next to him on the button and he picks up AH & 10C - and also puts in $2,000.
 

Action moves to Brian Townsend sitting in the Small Blind. He picks up 8S and 8C -
 

He thinks about re-raising but then changes his mind and just calls.

Roland De Wolfe is sitting in the Big Blind and he folds.

The Commentator (who I can't recognise at this point) says: "Gives me a tingly feeling inside when these three players play a pot."

There is $7,400 in the pot.

The Flop comes down: AC AS JC !!
   

Commentator 1 shouts: "WHAT A FLOP!!"

Commentator 2: "What a Flop here - we've got Ace Ace Jack Board here - Ivey has flopped Bottoms=full - and Patrik Antonius has flopped Trip-Aces - and both these players are VERY deep - both these players have over $400,000."

The Odds of winning this hand from the Flop are:
Ivey - 75%
Antonius - 24%
Townsend 1%

Brian Townsend checks.

Ivey bets out $5,000 Patrik riffles his chips and thinks for a moment.

Commentator 2 sounds american and he says: "The pot is ONLY $12,000"

Commentator 1, who has a slight Yorkshire accent replies: "I'm willing to bet its going to go up at some point in this hand - probably a good assumption."

Duh !! I was reading some of the comments on YouTube about this hand and they were slating the commentators - I still don't know who they are but they need help!

Phil Ivey has his usual glassy-eyed stare on - Patrik thinks about it some more and then re-raises it up to $15,000. I think that's a great bet as he can probably assume that his ace is good and if he gets any resistance, he can think again.

Brian Townsend folds quickly and action moves back to Phil.

Commentator 2 chips in: "Obviously Patrik Antonius cannot beat Ace-King, Ace-Queen or Ace-Jack, little does he know that Ivey has got Pocket-Jacks ! And the pot is $27,000 !!"

Oooh what a great feeling Phil must have - he knows that the only hand that can beat him are Ace-Jack or a pair of Aces, both of which are highly unlikely - so he's only got to work out exactly how he can extract the maximum from the finnish player.

Commentator 2 continues: "And Ivey, his eyes are just lighting up here - just trying to figure out 'how do I manouevre this pot to make as much as I possibly can' "

Phil Ivey re-re-raises $50,000 which makes the pot now stand at $72,400.

Personally I think he KNOWS that Patrik has a high-ace.

Commentator 2 continues some more: "And he is going to re-raise right away. Phil Ivey not going to wait to build this pot up. Patrik Antonius does have some outs here - he can catch an Ace or a Ten"

While all this has been going on, Howard Lederer has been going on about something or other in the background, but at this point, all goes quiet - as everyone realises that a big pot is brewing big-time.

Patrik Antonius calls the bet so the pot is now standing at $107,400 !!

Remember - this is Real Money - NOT tournament chips...

The Odds are now 77% in Phil's favour.

The Turn comes down: 5D which doesn't change anything.


Commentator 1 chimes in: "That's a great card for Phil - he can be pretty certain that Patrik's not re-raising him with Ace-Five"

Commentator 2: "If I remember correctly, Patrik did win a HUGE pot with Ace-Four against Phil Ivey earlier."

Phil is first to act and he takes his time to think about things. He is always slow and measured in his movements and his play - it's a joy to watch.

He casually bets out $100,000.

Patrik doesn't move a muscle.

Commentator 1: "Well that $100,000 bet is really going to confuse Patrik - he doesn't know if he's up against Ace-King, Ace-Queen - he tried to find out with a $15,000 bet..."

Patrik calls the bet !!

He doesn't look happy about it - I think he's hoping that Phil is on a draw for a club-flush or maybe on a smaller ace...

The River comes down: QH


Commentator 2: "It's a Queen, that changes nothing and for once Ivey has not gotten unlucky."

Commentator 1: "It might scare him a little though"

Commentator 2: "Of course! Phil Ivey trying to think 'How much can I bet here??' This pot is enormous - Phil Ivey the master - Trying to figure out exactly how to get the big call."

Commentator 1: "A decent-sized bet from Ivey and Patrik should be able to get away from the hand - there isn't much he can really beat here"

Commentator 2: "You're correct there, but the pot is $300,000!"

All this time, Ivey has been sitting there, quietly riffling his chips, staring at the table, pondering and thinking, and taking his time, Patrik looks like he's standing at the edge of a cliff and wondering if he's going to jump over it or not -

The commentators continue to discuss the hand and really they haven't a clue as they eventually start to repeat themselves -

Ivey still sits there wondering what to do - or at least he's appearing as though he's wondering what to do - but really he's just working out how much he can bet to get Patrik to call -

I think he's absolutely certain that he has the best hand.

The commentators still try to fill the silence - it reminds me of a hand I highlighted before with Phil Ivey - when you saw the clip - it only lasted for a few minutes but afterwards the other player said that Phil stared him down for at least six minutes, and it looks like he is going to do the same thing here...

It's also funny to watch the other players consciously or sub-consciously make moves to try and hurry Phil up - I think if it had been any other player, someone would have called for the clock to be put on him.

After 3 minutes and 20 seconds... an absolute lifetime... Phil bets out $250,000 !!

The Pot is now $557,400 and it would cost Patrik another $250,000 to call - that is a QUARTEROFAMILLIONDOLLARS in real money to call.... What would you do???

I've given up on what the commentators are saying because they are complete t*ssers - if anyone can tell me who they are then I might apologise... but at this stage - I would mute it if I were you.. !

Patrik can be beaten by AK, AQ, AJ, A5, JJ, 55, QQ - although as Phil was betting out heavily on the Flop - you can probably discount the last two hands...

Patrik would be betting out $250,000 into a $557,400 pot... I think Phil has pitched this bet at exactly the right amount. Patrik covers his mouth, pinches his nose, strokes his chin, picks his lips - sighs a bit, looks at Phil for guidance, prays to the lord for guidance, counts out some chips to see how much he would have left if he called, covers his face again, strokes his chin again... What a decision to make !!

It has now been over 2 minutes since Phil made his bet. Phil sits there like a statue, not giving anything away at all. Patrik massages his temples and then says: "I call".

Phil turns his cards over and Patrik hardly grimaces as he looks away.

Phil gathers in his chips and smiles for the first time in nearly 10 minutes !

You can view this hand for yourself at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGtECF5DxIQ&feature=related

Oops - I've just found out that the commentators are Gary Jones and David Tupman... who???

Oh - Gary Jones is the one they call 'The Choirboy' - yes ok - I have heard of him - but I think he should stick to playing rather than commentating.

Ooh - I remember him alot better now - he's rather cute and drives an Aston Martin doesn't he?? Gary - I think you did a STERLING JOB commentating - feel free to email me anytime !

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Post Mortem

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One of Phil Ivey's strengths is that he is not scared of taking his time in making decisions - in fact - I think he uses time to intimidate his opponents - on the hands where I have seen him play - he has always taken an in-ordinate amount of time whereas other players make much quicker decisions or have the clock put on them -

Why didn't Phil Ivey have the clock put on him?? Maybe they don't use it in Cash games??

Obviously another one of Phil's strengths is that he is totally unreadable - he could have been making those same moves on a total bluff - He always looks the same - mouth slightly open - eyes darting everywhere - body language neither one thing or another - very very difficult to play against and to read !

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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and I'll see you
again next Friday.

All the best

Meg Arana
Hold or Fold