Friday 16th May 2008

Welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated to
helping YOU become a better player!

In this week's E-Letter -

       *Colder than a Cold Day in Coldland

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Hiya there and how have you been this week??

Grrrrr - I can't believe it - I played in Last Sunday's Tournament and it was only three or
four weeks ago that I was telling you how I find it so difficult to spot Trips...

Well... That's exactly what happened to me - I had AK with an A 6 4 Flop - and I went
out to Trip 6's - I looked around on the net for some help and found a site - check it out: www.pokerpenguin.net/2007/11/14/tripping-on-my-poker-blind-spot/

I can't find out who the author is but his bottom-line in this matter is:

"Lesson here: When someone plays back at you after your check raise, before you call,
honestly evaluate the strength of your hand vs. what they could be holding."

There are also alot of helps and tips on that site and it's well worth digging around on there.

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By the way - did you spot my deliberate mistake last week??

I mentioned how I missed the commentary on the WPT by Dave Sexton & Vince Van Patten -

Of course - it's Mike Sexton - not Dave Sexton !!

How could I have got that wrong?? - I'll tell you how - it's one of the main reasons that I
don't follow football any more -

because.... I'm a QPR Supporter :-(

But Dave Sexton was QPR's manager in the great days of the 70's when we nearly won the
(what is now) the Premier League...

Anyways... funnily enough - for last week's WPT Tournament Mike and Vince were back in
the seat and it was great to hear Vince's lines again...

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Colder than a Cold day in Cold Land!

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Last year I wrote about a hand I called - "Colder than a Polar Bear's Freezer" - You can read it
again by clicking here... www.holdorfold.co.uk/eletters/070423.htm

And to this day - it is still an amazing hand - but - in the Premier League that's being shown
at the moment - a hand came up which can maybe rival the previous hand...

Let me know how you would deal with this one...

It's right near the beginning of the single-table 6-handed tournament and the blinds are
1,000/2,000.

Vicky Coren gets dealt QD and 7C and she folds.
 

Phil Hellmuth is next to act and he picks up AS & 5H.
 

With a flourish he throws 6,000 chips into the middle saying: "Raise again!"

As he knows that Jesse May is commentating with Devilfish himself, he says, with another
flourish, "Raise 'em all Fish !"

Juha Helpi folds and action moves over to Andy Black.

Andy picks up 9D & 9S and he calls.
 

Dave 'Devilfish' Ulliot says: "There's alot of raggy aces around and Andy Black's got a
hand here. I don't like this call, he should raise here. If it comes any overcards, Phil can
take it away from him. I don't like the call, he should be raising."

Jesse May pipes up: "And especially a chance to re-raise Hellmuth for the second time in a row."

Dave replies: "Yes - it's a double-sider - it would get Hellmuth off the hand and also you
wouldn't have to see a Flop."

Marcel Luske is next to act and he folds as does Tony G.

So the two of them go to the Flop with 15,000 in the pot.

The Flop comes down: AD 5C 5D !!
   

Devilfish: "There you go - what is he (Andy) going to do now??"

Phil Checks.

Devilfish laughs: "Of course he's (Phil) checking."

Andy checks too.

Devilfish is still laughing... "Unbelievable eh? If a 9-ball comes up here then..."

He cuts off as the Turn comes down... 9C !!!


Devilfish continues... " WOWWWWWWWW - OHHHHHH - look at this cold deck !
UNBELIEVABLE !!!"

Phil bets out 6,000 chips.

Jesse May: "This could be the end of Hellmuth in the Premier League !!"

Andy calls quickly.

Devilfish: "If Andy had raised there - it WOULD have been the end of him (Phil) I tell you
that now - Hellmuth is going to bet again and Andy is going to raise..."

Jesse: "I mean there's NO way that Hellmuth feels he's being beaten now is there."

Devilfish: "No - he's just wondering how much he can get at the moment. The only hand
he's scared of is two-nines."

The River comes down: 6S


Phil checks.

Devilfish: "I can't believe he's checked it."

Jesse May is gobsmacked: "How - Why has he checked it??"

Andy bets out 14,000 chips.

Devilfish: "If Hellmuth raises here, he's out of the tournament - I can't see how he can call."

Phil sits back for a moment and looks at his cards again and sighs.

Jesse is still gobsmacked: "How eh?? This HAS to be a check-raise doesn't it???"

Devilfish: "Yes - really it has to be I mean - he's playing too tight to win this tournament if
he just calls.... WOW!"

Phil is still playing with his chips - I get the impression that he is really gearing up for the
check-raise and is just wondering how much he can get Andy to call for.

Jesse: "There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY that he can think that Andy Black has a better hand
- even if he reads him strong right??"

Phil thinks for a bit more and announces: "Raise"

Devilfish: "Here comes the raise and Andy is going to move in on him totally. Andy is only
scared of two-aces so he's got to move in on him."

Phil counts out his chips and says: "26(thousand)"

Jesse: "Cor... this is Christmas here for Andy Black."

Phil adopts his 'Phil Hellmuth' position - his head is down so his cap hides the top of his face -
his elbows are on the table with his fists covering the bottom half of his face.

As I watch this through - I'm very interested to see that Vicky Coren has been totally
absorbed - watching the two players as the action unfolds as if she's sponging in the
information and body language of the two players, storing this for future use.

Andy plays with his chips for a short while and then announces: "All in."

Devilfish: "Yep that's it... Now Phil feels sick now. Now Phil's going to say he's got two-nines.
Phil KNOWS he's got two-nines now - or it's a total bluff - he KNOWS he's got two-nines."

Jesse May coos: "Ohhhh Myyyyyyy"

Devilfish almost feels sorry for him: "Look at Phil's face - Wowwwwww"

To give Phil complete credit - I'm sure you and I would have been so pleased with Andy's all-in
and we would have insta-called - but then again - we're not 11-times WSOP bracelet holders!

Phil is almost laughing - he's counting his chips out and re-living the hand in his mind.
He then looks down at the glass towards the Devilfish and says: "Fishy Fishy Fishy!! Who'd know that I'd make a Full House this early in the game buddy?? I think it's Bye-Bye Phil - I don't think I can lay this down"

Devilfish: "You gotta feel sorry for him man."

Phil then laughs out loud in almost a hysterical way.

Jesse: "He can't believe it !"

Phil's laughing some more: "I'm trying to lay this down but I can't do it - how much
more is it??"

In the meantime, Andy is sitting there totally impassively with his elbows on the table and
his hands covering his mouth - at this point - he KNOWS he has the best hand and he's
just praying for Phil to call.

Phil: "Did he turn nines-full on me???"

Devilfish: "Yes that's the one buddy! I know that's the only hand you're scared of."

Jesse: "He's laughing about it - he can laugh about it!?!"

Dave: "Well he's laughing because he can't believe it you know. He's flopped a Full House and
this only happens on TV you know - it's amazing this stuff eh?? This is sick."

Phil is still counting out chips and thinking about it and he just mutters:
"Wowwwwwwwww"

He's stopped laughing now and adopted the more familiar 'Pokerbrat' persona that we all know
and love.

Then he mutters some more: "Well this is what it takes to get me out of the Premier League
huh? Hands like this one I guess."

He stacks his chips on top of each other with angry taps and he's in full mutter-mode now:
"I can't lay this down."

Then he puts his chips in the middle: "Sixes-full is good."

Devilfish: "Nines buddy."

Andy immediately turns his cards over and Phil nods his head as the shock hits him.

Tony G says in a very quiet voice: "That's unfortunate."

Devilfish also whispers: "Wowwwwwwww"

Jesse May speaks up: "There was NO WAY OUT - There was ABSOLUTELY no way out."

Phil laughs: "I had nothing - seven-eight - I made a straight on the end."

Andy Black: "Really??"

Phil: "Yeah!"

Then he flips his cards onto the table to show them.

Jesse laughs: "Seven-Eight!!!"

Phil looks into the glass and says: "Fish !?!?! What the F**k - I flopped a Full House and
I'm out. That's so sick!"

Tony G: "I feel bad for you buddy!"

Devilfish: "That's disgusting!"

Then Phil gets up from the table and looks back at the glass and starts off in his usual
rant: "The rest of these players are all-in with fours and fives and sevens and eights and nines
- I flopped a Full House - and I'm OUT!"

Then he leaves the table and you can hear him muttering: "So Sick!"

Devilfish: "That was very unlucky"

Andy Black says: "Cold deck."

Phil is now well away from the table and heading for the exit and he's still ranting:
"What the f**king hell was that??"

Then he stands in front of a member of the crew who starts to take his microphone off
and he's still ranting: "That's got to be the biggest cooler of this scenario."

Then he shouts to someone: "I want the limo - I don't want to hang out here."

The camera looks back at Andy who is trying to keep the smile off his face...

Jesse May: "That's the hard side of poker."

Devilfish laughs: "Poor old Phil!"

Jesse: "He checked the Flop there Phil Hellmuth - but Devilfish - you check the Flop with a
Full House don't you??"

Devilfish replies: "You know - the only trouble is - you can check the Flop of course because
you have the Full House, you've flopped the absolute nuts barring two-aces but then again if
you bet out and hope the guy has an Ace then you get alot of action and if he hasn't got an
ace then he's probably got a pair and you're only gonna get action if he hits the pair so there
is some reason for betting out but ... you know.... it's tough I don't know.... He's unlucky ain't
he !"

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Post Mortem

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In the post-match interview - Phil had this to say:

"It's not a hand that very many people in the world could get away from - NOBODY in the
Premier League could have folded it - so - it's ok - I've still got two more heats - I'm
frustrated but erm.... I'm not frustrated that I made the call - maybe I could have made
some spectacular laydown but I don't think so - They're all playing so bad and I get in with
a Full House - and I can't win - "

Phil is absolutely right - Apart from maybe Phil Ivey or Doyle Brunson - I can't think of anyone
in the world who would not have called that hand -

I think Phil made a bad decision in the first place to play with Ace-Five - it's not a good hand
and if you hit your ace - you're going to get into trouble...

...But in Phil's case - he not only hit his ace, but he hit a Full House Fives-over-aces - the
odds of him losing at that moment were 8% - and with those odds - he was very very very
VERY unlucky - but then again - that's what makes this game sooooooo fascinating !

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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and I'll see you again next Friday.

All the best

Meg Arana
Hold or Fold