Friday 13th June 2008

Welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated to
helping YOU become a better player!

In this week's E-Letter -

       *Tony G walks on Water !!

*******************************

Hiya there and how have you been this week??

I've had a really good week - I've been playing Turbo Sit 'n' Goes - and had a modicum
of success - I was thinking back to when I played them about this time last year - I've
been having to get my bankroll up after it decreased playing a few Multi- Table-Tournaments -

So I've managed to get it back up slightly and as well as qualifying for this week's Sunday
Tournament - I'm sitting pretty -

How about you?? I'd love to hear some of your stories - are you doing well?? Are you struggling??
Is there a particular area where you could do with some specific advice??

Let me know and I'll see what I can do...

************************

Tony G walks on Water !!

************************

This week - I'm highlighting two hands taken from the recent Premier League Series that
was shown on telly.

If you thought Phil Hellmuth was going soft and quiet in his old age - think again...

It's the usual format - six players at the table and the later you finish - the more points you get.

Roland de Wolfe and Devilfish have both been knocked out and the remaining players have
the following chip-stacks...

Alex Kravchenko - 173,000
Andy Black - 171,000
Tony G - 137,000
Annie Duke - 119,000

The Blinds are 7,000/15,000

Tony G is first to act - he picks up JD & 10D and announces: "I'm All-in!"
 


Phil Hellmuth commentating is disgusted: "Ten-Jack - he's lowered his standards down to
the Ten-Jack!!"

Andy Black and Annie Duke both fold and action moves over to Alex Kravchenko who
announces: "I call!"

Both Phil Hellmuth and Jesse May wow: "WOooWWWWW !!! Uh oh!!"

Alex turns over his cards to reveal QC & QD
 

Phil is delighted: "Pocket Queens for Kravchenko and this has got Tony G in a bunch - he is
in BAD shape here."

The odds are 84% in Alex's favour to win pre-flop.

Jesse May points out: "And this is actually bad news for ALL the short stacks in the Green Room"

Phil replies: "It is - all the short stacks in the Green Room are rooting against Kravchanko -
they are rooting for the old Seven-Eight-Nine"

This is because Tony G has already qualified for the final table and Alex needs good points to
knock out some of the other players.

The Flop comes down: AC 8C 7H
   

Annie Duke points out to Tony G: "That's a good Flop for you!"

The Turn comes down: 9D


Annie shouts out: "Oh My God - You're the luckiest guy I've ever seen! "

Phil spits: "OK - That just makes me SICK ! WOW !! And that's whats been happening in this
Premier League - It's the people that have been moving all-in - they seem to just hit their
draws when they're called - "

Jesse laughs: "He's the MAN !! -- Tony is de Man !"

Phil is not happy: "Well you call him what you want - but I mean he moved in with Jack-Ten
and got called with Queens and won the pot so... "

Jesse: "I'll tell you what though - Alex may not be happy but Eddy Sharfe - Marcel Luske -
Roland de Wolfe - Annie Duke..."

A general discussion ensues about strategies and points...

Phil is still spitting: "What is astounding to me is how Tony G has won every single race
that I have witnessed and I mean - he's not putting his money in with Ace-Jack against
two queens - it's the Ten-Jack - he's not putting his money in with Nines, Tens and Jacks -
it's Fours and Fives - I mean he's really been walking on water and I really don't think it's
a long-term sustainable strategy but you know... he looks pretty good this week"

Jesse May: "And yet you continue to bet against him"

Phil: "Of course - it's not a long term sustainable strategy!"

+++++++++++++++

And then the VERY next hand...

Andy Black is first to act and he folds.

Annie Duke is next to act and she picks up AS & 5D and she quietly announces: "I'm all-in"
 

Alex is next to act and he picks up: AD & JD and he announces: "I call you"
 

Action is now on Tony G.

He asks: "How much is there?? I'm 90% to call!"

Jesse: "What's Tony got?? He got something??"

Annie is in the middle of counting out her chips and Tony just says: "I'll call !"

Jesse: "My gosh he must have Ace-Jack beat!"

Tony stands up laughing and turns over QS & 8H
 

Phil: "Oh haha - Queen-Eight Offsuit - that is a sick call - Annie Duke moved in for 119,000
and I don't understand what is going on - I think that all reason has escaped - I don't
understand this I mean - this is ridiculous - it's a hundred- thousand-dollar raise and it's
been a raise and a move all-in and a call with a Queen and an Eight - this is BAD poker - !!"

The odds of winning pre-flop are:

Alex Kravchenko: 43%
Tony G: 35%
Annie Duke: 16%

Alex stands up and can't believe it - Andy Black has stood up - just to stretch his legs by the
looks of it - and Annie is left sitting at the table with a fixed smile on her face as she knows
she's got little chance of surviving after this hand.

The Flop comes down: 4S 10C 7H
   

Tony says: "Where are my cards??"

Alex replies: "They're coming later"

The odds are now:
Alex 58%
Tony 25%
Annie 14%

Phil is not happy: "I don't know what Tony G was thinking I mean that was just a ridiculous
call - I mean - Really bad !!"

The Turn comes down: QH


Tony punches the air: "YESSssssss! Come on BABYYYY!"

Phil is disgusted again: "This is not even poker - I mean that was just one of the worst calls
I've ever seen."

The odds are now:
Alex 14%
Tony 86%
Annie 0%

The River is: 8S


All the players talk at once while Annie and Alex prepare to leave the room.

Meanwhile... back in the commentary box - Phil Hellmuth is having apoplexy:
"This isn't poker - I mean - I can't commentate this - I mean - What is that???"

Tony G is trying to defend himself: "This is what everybody wants - I have to do it for all
the other players"

Phil: "This isn't even poker I mean - That was just such a bad call, I just can't even believe it
- I can't even believe what I'm seeing - I can't even commentate!"

Annie grabs her bag and leaves the room laughing: "Tony you deserve it !"

Tony laughs: "I had the right odds to call!"

Andy is laughing too: "I KNEW you were going to win that!"

Phil isn't laughing: "This isn't even poker - I don't know what to say"

Tony says to Andy: "Mathematically it's correct for me to call!"

Phil retorts: "It's NOT mathematically correct for him to call - it's not even close!"

+++++++++++++++

We now get to see Alex and Annie leaving the premises -

Tony shouts out: "The russian and the american walking out look at that ! It's time to go -
It's time to GO !"

We now see Alex and Annie walking down the street...

Annie laughs: "Some day Alex - we'll be good enough to make that call! That was pretty sick
he was risking over a third of his stack - I've got to learn how to call with Queen-Eight - It was
a cold-deck for you..."

Alex laughs: "I suppose he's a much better player!"

+++++++++++++++

After the break - Andy Black and Tony G go into the Heads-up play - but Phil is still going
on about Tony's play: "That's not poker - there's no reasonable explanation no matter how
you slice it and dice it - there's no logic involved - him calling off all that money with Queen-
Eight was ridiculously bad play by EVERY MEASURE POSSIBLE - And I'm just in shock!"

Jesse asks: "I've quizzed you from every possible angle and you have said that there is no
possible logic for it!"

Phil: "NO Possible logic for it - Annie Duke has moved in for 120,000 and Kravchenko stood up
from his chair and pushed HIS chips all-in - so you KNOW Kravchenko has a hand - you KNOW
Annie has a hand - and then all of a sudden he makes a speech about how he had to call with
Queen-Eight-offsuit - He had to FOLD with Queen-Eight-Offsuit is the reality!"

**************

Post Mortem

**************

Andy wins the heads-up and Phil and Jesse join Tony and Andy at the table for a discussion...

Phil: "Tony - you used alot of aggression really well and you've stolen alot of chips and you've
done really well playing an aggressive game but WHY did you call with Queen- Eight when Annie
moved all-in because that was the hand that puzzled me the most??!"

Tony G replies: "Why not?? I'm getting pretty good odds there to call - Alex had quite alot
less chips, Annie could have any random hand - I felt I could have had Annie beat - I wasn't
worried about Alex - I knew I was losing there and he only had about 55-60,000 - so - my
odds weren't so horrible and I could knock two players out straight away!"

Personally - I can see why Phil was so amazed and shocked - he plays a very tight game and
he bluffs but mainly as the aggressor - if two people are all-in - it is obviously beyond his
comprehension as to why someone would call with such a marginal hand -

Having said that - Tony had alot of chips - his confidence was up - if he lost - he would have
been back to where he was before the first hand of the two above - so - that's the fascinating
aspect to Poker - one man's meat is another man's poison....

***************************************

Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and I'll see you again next Friday.

All the best

Meg Arana
Hold or Fold