Friday 20th June 2008

Welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated to
helping YOU become a better player!

In this week's E-Letter -

       *A Bird in the Hand...

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Hiya there wer and how have you been this week??

Wooh - I'm very happy to report that I've had a really good week -

As my daughter has been away on a school trip, I took advantage and went to the casino
on Tuesday and Thursday.

Tuesday was a £5 rebuy night with 55 runners. I only had one Rebuy and one Add-on so I was
in for £15 - I came 2nd and walked away with £280 !!

Thursday was a £10 rebuy night with 24 runners - I was over double the average by the end
of the rebuy period so I didn't take the Add-on - so I was only in for £20 - I got knocked out
shortly after the interval when some lucky git hit his 2nd pair on the River but I played in the
cash game and walked away £95 in profit on the night !!

One interesting thing is that I play alot tighter in live games than I do on the internet, so
I've been trying to loosen up a bit live and tighten up a bit online - and both areas have

improved !!

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A Bird in the Hand...

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This week's hand comes from the WPT Bay 101 Shooting Star event held in Los Angeles.

This is a full tournament where some of the expert pro players have bounties on their heads
and anyone who knocks one of these bounties out, receives $5,000 cash there and then.

Well - the final table held one bounty, a lady called JJ Liu and she was the last bounty standing.

She was up against Ted Forrest who is a very celebrated poker player.

I couldn't work out why Ted Forrest wasn't a bounty - but I found this quote on the internet...

QUOTE

When Ted Forrest was left off the list of bounties, most observers figured it as a snub, but
as it turns out, Forrest turned down organizers' requests to put $5,000 on his head, figuring
it would hamper his chances at victory.

UNQUOTE

At this point, JJ Liu is marginally in front with $4,930,000 chips to Ted Forrests' $4,070,000.

The Blinds are $120,000/$240,000 with a running ante of $30,000.

Also - JJ Liu is aiming to become the first ever lady to win a WPT event and in fact - she is the
first lady ever to get to a guaranteed 2nd place !!

JJ Liu is first to act and she picks up QS and JS.
 

She announces what sounds like "400!"

Ted looks at the Tournament Director and says: "She said 400, so I guess she means 500
right?"

If you raise pre-flop, it has to be at least double the big blind.

JJ says: "I said 500"

Ted looks around very bemused... JJ has a very thick accent so it could have been either.

The Tournament Director decides that she should put in the minimum raise which is 480
(thousand) and both players are happy with that decision.

Ted looks down at KC & 5C and he calls.
 

Mike Sexton commentating: "Well it's not going to make a difference for $20K whether
Ted plays the pot or not, but she did say 500,000."

So there is $1,020,000 in the pot and the odds are 54% in Ted's favour.

The Flop comes down: KS 7D AC
   

Ted checks and so does JJ.

The Turn comes down: 10C !!!


Mike gasps: "OH - the 10 of Clubs has come down giving JJ Liu the best hand possible, the
Ace-High straight !!"

JJ Liu is now an 80% favourite to win this hand.

Ted counts out some chips and bets out $300,000.

Vince Van Patten is also commentating: "She's getting Ted to bet into her."

Mike responds: "Well he's got a pair of Kings and the Nut-Flush draw and she checked on the
Flop, I don't blame him for betting !"

JJ thinks about it for a short moment and then calls.

Mike: "Notice that she just calls here, again she's trying to trap Ted."

The River comes down: 2C !!!!!!!!


Vince is beside himself: "OOOOh look at this card, a deuce of clubs, Ted Forrest hitting
his Flush !!!"

Ted doesn't hesitate for long, with a wave of his hand he announces: "I'm all in !"

The crowd go wild...

Mike Sexton: "WOWOW and he's gone All-In !! He has moved ALL IN here with the Nut Flush
- only about $1.6 million in the pot and yet he's bet $3.2 million right now - an overbet as
we say - this is going to create great problems for JJ Liu right here - she had the best hand
possible on the Turn and now Ted has the best hand possible - INCREDIBLE !!"

Ted now sits with his elbows on the table and his chin rests in his hands and he tries really
hard not to look smug and let the extreme happiness and adrenalin he is feeling show through.

Meanwhile, JJ Liu removes her shades and stares at Ted. She looks at her cards again and tries
to work out what Ted might have.

She mumbles: "Wow ..."

Mike: "She knows the only she can be beat with is if Ted backdoored a Flush - hit two running
clubs to make a Flush and that's exactly what happened. "

JJ mumbles again: "...And you're all-in"

Mike: "But how do you get away from this??"

Ted now sits back with his arms crossed and looks slightly bored.

JJ stares hard at Ted and asks: "So you hit a flush??"
(sounds like frush but who cares??")

Vince: "That's a solid question there JJ!"

Mike laughs: "And you don't see Ted answering do you !"

Vince replies: "Not this time!"

JJ Liu continues to stare at Ted and after a minute or so she asks: "You're all in - how
much is that??"

I don't think she really wants to know, she's just asking to get Ted to move and see if she
can pick up any tells or clues from his demeanour.

Mike: "How ironic is this hand, she was trying to reel him on the Turn and now he's trying
to reel her in on the River"

Ted counts out his chips.

Vince: "Well she did have more chips than him at the start of this hand - she had approximately
One million chips more so she wouldn't go broke if she should call this but she would definitely
be crippled."

Mike: "Well - over $8 million in this pot if she should make this call."

Vince: "Can she get away from this Mike??"

JJ had been leaning back staring at Ted, but now she sits up and looks at her chips - she's about
to make her decision...

She looks at Ted again and asks: "You have two pairs???"

Mike: "She's getting warmer but if she lays this hand down, you can put it up as one of the
all-star folds of all-time in Poker!!"

JJ considers it some more and then announces: "I call!"

Ted immediately moves to turn his cards over with a flourish.

Mike shouts: "She's made the call and Ted proudly displays the nuts here !"

Ted smiles with relief and then punches the air with both hands in triumph !

The crowd go wild again and JJ grits her teeth and tries to smile but fails. She shakes her head
in dismay.

Mike shouts: "You can see how happy Ted is !! Well folks I'll tell you, Ted Forrest doesn't show
his emotions very often at the poker table and you're seeing it right here and that tells you how
much he wants to win this title !!"

Vince: "This is going to devestate JJ Liu - she couldn't get away from this hand - she is going
to pay it off in a very big way !"

Mike: "Well Vince, I don't think you can fault JJ or Ted, either one of them, in the way they
played that hand!!"

JJ Liu is very gracious - she looks over at Ted and says: "Nice hand"

Ted: "That was lucky - kind of a cold deck!"

Mike: "Well I have to agree with Ted there - There was nothing she could do in that situation -
The slow play has just been the death of JJ in this heads-up battle."

Ted reels in his chips and says to JJ: "There was nothing you could do!"

JJ shakes her head: "I should move in on the Turn"

Mike: "JJ's straight just got destroyed by Ted's Flush! Things just not panning out for JJ at all
tonight!"

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Post Mortem

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Unless you have the ABSOLUTE NUTS - whereby it is not possible for any hand to outdraw you -
then any kind of slow play carries a risk.

At the point in this hand where JJ just called the Turn - she was the 80% favourite to win this
hand - so she would win it 4 out of 5 times.

It is a reasonable gamble to take but she didn't factor in that this was a crucial point of the
tournament and if the unthinkable happened and Ted sucked out - then she would lose an
ENORMOUS amount of money.

So - personally - in this position - at this time - I would have re-raised Ted.

Having said that - Ted's hand probably looked very good to him - he had a good pair and a
nut-flush draw - he might have called if JJ Liu had moved all-in at that point - but there again -
he might have folded -

Yes - I think I would have re-raised at that point.

As the saying goes... A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush !

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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and I'll see you again next Friday.

All the best

Meg Arana
Hold or Fold